Archive for January, 2012

Extreme polar airmass spreading into central Europe next week!

Rapidly and completelly changing weather pattern across Europe is unfolding this weekend, with a large blocking over western Europe/Atlantic sea. It is blocking the zonal flow and providing more meridional flow across central Europe. This will result in changing weather into more winter alike. Despite almost no snow chance for southern Alpine region, except the NW Italy which received deep snow cover today, an unusually powerful polar trough will bring extreme cold across E-CNTRL Europe in the next 7-10 days! Such setup usually need a blocking Atlantic high as well as extensive Scandinavian/Russian ridge resulting in the massive advection of Siberrian cold airmass towards the central Europe.

Here is a map of the pattern later next week, showing a strong ridging over NE Europe and large cyclone over N-CNTRL Mediterranean, resulting in strong pressure/temperature gradient in between. As a result, a strong ENE-erly flow towards the Mediterranean brings extreme cold with 850mb temps between -15 and -20°C. Additionally, very strong to extreme Bora winds are expected, likely reaching gusts up to 200 km/h locally!

Indeed details are not yet well defined as regarding the precipitation over the next weekend, but its sure that cold airmass will be one of the most impressive in the last decades (30-40 years). Still some uncertainities exist, but for sure winter with very cold to near extreme temperatures returning into large large of Europe. This map shows the 850mb temperature anomaly, very impressive at least to say! It is completely the opposite picture from what we experienced in the last weeks.

Here is an ENS forecast for central Slovenia… pretty extreme anomaly!

Stay tuned for future updates on this impressive setup next week!

Heavy snowfalls for NW Italy today

Winter across central Europe is finally changing into the usual pattern with ending unusually warm period which lasted several weeks. A modified upper low crossed western Alps and moves south across the NW Italy into the Mediterranean sea. At surface, a secondary Genoa low forms over the Ligurian sea, resulting in favorable shear and environment for precipitation incease further north into NW Italy.

With quite cold temperatures across the lowlands as well as persisting easterly LL flow across the Po valley, high amounts of snow are expected over much of the Piemonte plains as well. This WRF map shows some impressive snow amounts possible today. Wuldn’t exclude some places receiving from 30-50cm of fresh snow by tomorrow late morning! The precipitation maxima is expected along the coastal areas of Ligurian bay where southerly LLJ results in more intense orographic rainfalls due to local complex topography…

Stay tuned!

Devastating tornadoes rip through the SE states once again

As we were all affraid, maps verified and numerous tornadoes swept through the SE US, while some of them have been strong and violent. As for now, 21 tornado reports can be found at SPC website, at least 2 people were killed and more than 100 were injured from the last night’s tornadoes/strong winds…

Detailed reports: SPC reports Jan 22nd, 2012

Here are an impressive graphics produced by WDT showing the potential paths of yesterday’s two tornadic supercells around the BMX, AL compared to the path of last year April’s 27h deadly EF5 tornado which blasted through Toscaloosa and Birmingham last spring. Shocking to see how unlucky those people were again this time, not to mention that last year’s and yesterday’s tracks are actually crossing on the NE side of Birmingham.

Here is a preliminary map of possible tornado tracks across E-CNTRL AR when it all began yesterday, more details from the damage surveys are expected withn a couple of days from NWS Little Rock, AR.

Here is an interesting skew-t diagram from Jacksonville, MS which was launched about 5 hrs before tornadoes were reported near Birmingham, AL. Although this is about 150 miles west from the storm, it should be representative of the tornadic environment in AL. As it can be seen, MLCAPE was exceeding 1100 J/kg, LCL’s were below 1000m and combined with very strong shear in excess of 60 knots! With impressive LL SR helicity, environment was surely conductive for strong tornadoes to occur.

A photo published on CNN showing a devastation in Birmingham, AL… read more detailed article on the link below:

CNN report – Severe weather rakes Southeast; 2 dead in Alabama

Here is another shot © Jim Herbowy from Trussville, Alabama after the tornado this morning:

Stay tuned for future updates on this event!