Archive for the ‘USA analysis’ Category

Tornado outbreak across central Plains verified!

As mostly expected, a tornado outbreak clearly verified over the HIGH risk area yesterday/last night, though less activity over northern parts due to extensive MCS on going from earlier activity. The main robust long-track supercells with violent tornadoes occured across parts of S KS into NNW OK. Below are several videos found on youtube from many fellow chasers…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiLL2XujUiU
Video © Davis Reimer, Jenny Brown

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_QRG-TsfBc
Video © TWISTEX

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYT1DZ7udkg
Video © Heidi Farrar, Dave Demko

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-SlhQve1pk
Video © unknown author

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcLmeD_NLdA
Video © Jeromy Carter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bz0QisLgSnQ
Video © University Kansas

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0RMXC80EcA
Video © Brandon Ivey

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAUX-zin06g
Video © Dan Robinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5X_nphzSjQ
Video © Chris Sanner

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C55L-q5JbVM
Video © Justin Teague

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD-4GIEDfbg/a>
Video © Tony Laubach

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USCZsUEAHTg
Video © BNVN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IUTAwpV3N8
Video © BNVN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKzxhIFR37E
Video © BNVN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTb6A3XKCdM
Video © unknown author

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TsbCSErWpw
Video © BNVN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIeweEDsrRQ
Video © Unknown author

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a_QpIzyUN4
Video © BNVN

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BI8CGzXgBvY
Video © Mike Wilhelm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCAACPIeUhU
Video © WX5PJB

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bquzRTyOxuk
Video © Stevin Bessette

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1X7DyA-t6c
Video © WX5PJB

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiQBQxcUGNE
Video © TVNweather

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30LqxVzpEow
Video © unknown author

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaWaNftg3UQ
Video © Dustin Wilcox

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UGonOVyOMU
Video © unknown author

Unfortunatelly there were also several deaths, 5 people killed so far in tornado that hit Woodward, OK at early night!

Stay tuned!


SVR TSTORM watch #0116 for E-CNTRL KS into NW OK, storms rapidly firing along the DL!

Storms are rapidly forming along the dryline from CNTRL KS into NW OK as seen on the latest satellite and radar images…

A SVR TSTORM watch has been issued, storms will increase in coverage and intensity while spreading east in the next hours.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoesLow (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind eventsMod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knotsLow (20%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail eventsMod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inchesLow (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind eventsHigh (70%)

DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE IN NW OK…AND AS THE DRYLINE IS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARIES…WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ARE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER MARGINS FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS /PRIMARILY IN KS/…BUT THE MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PEAK BY LATE EVENING…AND THEN DECREASE BY 02-03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND THE CAP AGAIN STRENGTHENS.

Stay tuned!


Tornado watch #0115 for NE KS/SE NE/NW MO is out, initiation soon!

A tornado watch has already been issued for areas across NE KS/SE NE/NW MO with quite high probs for TORNS and very large hail, SPC mentions up to 3″ possible!

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoesLow (20%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind eventsMod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knotsLow (20%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail eventsHigh (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inchesHigh (70%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind eventsHigh (90%)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY BY ABOUT 23Z ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NE KS INTO SE NEB…IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH. MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG…STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES…AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONALLY…LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ALONG A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NE KS…WHERE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO NW MO LATER THIS EVENING.

Stay tuned!